Abstract: Due to the factors of uncertainty, such as those in the spacecraft physical characteristics, the disturbance of the space environment, the space environment prediction technique, and the performance of the atmospheric model, the assessments for the space target collision probability related to the orbit prediction may not be clear enough to accurately describe the collision rate levels. In this paper, based on the extreme value of the collision probability, the aerodynamic force error model is simplified and the boundary of the orbit prediction related issues is calculated quantitatively. The concepts of the spatial environment excitation graph and the 3σ domain are proposed, and the corresponsive method is implemented with calculation example of the space debris collision warning and the forecast of the fall-to-Earth of space objects. It is shown that the method can be used to evaluate and deal with the ambiguity problems in the orbit prediction related work, to provide some guidance for the relevant decision-making in the aerospace engineering practice.